Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Round - 4

AC Horsens–FC Midtjylland

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 April 2023 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: CASA Arena, Horsens

Goals and red cards

9'FC MidtjyllandJ. Gomez (own goal)
69'FC MidtjyllandGustav Isaksen (assist: Kristoffer Olsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Horsens		FC Midtjylland
6	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
408	Passes	302
299	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Horsens 1.08 · FC Midtjylland 1.58. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots AC Horsens 6 · FC Midtjylland 14; on target 1 and 6.
AC Horsens kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Lasse Laebel Graagaard, Denmark→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “FC Midtjylland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for AC Horsens, 1.58 for FC Midtjylland.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (X2 — draw or FC Midtjylland win).
These values were computed from 141 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Horsens to win24.6%

Draw27.0%

FC Midtjylland to win48.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AC Horsens win or draw51.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or FC Midtjylland win75.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

AC Horsens lead at half-time21.7%

Level at half-time41.6%

FC Midtjylland lead at half-time36.7%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Horsens ahead or level63.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or FC Midtjylland ahead78.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 141 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Horsens: at least 11Actual: 13
FC Midtjylland: at least 7Actual: 6

Corners

AC Horsens: at least 4Actual: 6
FC Midtjylland: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Horsens score1.08

Attack: AC Horsens score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.58

Attack: FC Midtjylland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Horsens concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–210.4%0–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 141 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.