Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 21

AC Horsens–FC Copenhagen

1–4

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 March 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: CASA Arena, Horsens

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'AC HorsensA. Jacobsen
48'FC CopenhagenD. Vavro (assist: M. Daramy)
52'FC CopenhagenH. Haraldsson
54'FC CopenhagenJ. Larsson (assist: H. Haraldsson)
90+5'FC CopenhagenE. Jelert (assist: A. Cornelius)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Horsens		FC Copenhagen
8	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
341	Passes	593
238	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Horsens 0.78 · FC Copenhagen 2.18. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots AC Horsens 8 · FC Copenhagen 12; on target 4 and 7.
FC Copenhagen kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Jens Maae, Denmark→

3.25

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.0%: “FC Copenhagen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.78 for AC Horsens, 2.18 for FC Copenhagen.
The highest double chance value is 89.4% (X2 — draw or FC Copenhagen win).
These values were computed from 123 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Horsens to win10.6%

Draw19.3%

FC Copenhagen to win70.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AC Horsens lead at half-time15.9%

Level at half-time40.2%

FC Copenhagen lead at half-time43.9%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Horsens ahead or level56.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or FC Copenhagen ahead84.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 123 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Horsens: at least 10Actual: 11
FC Copenhagen: at least 7Actual: 6

Corners

AC Horsens: at least 3Actual: 5
FC Copenhagen: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Horsens score0.78

Attack: AC Horsens score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Copenhagen score2.18

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: AC Horsens concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.18 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–212.7%0–110.6%1–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.