Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 20

Silkeborg–FC Nordsjaelland

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 March 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jysk Park, Silkeborg

Goals and red cards

41'FC NordsjaellandE. Marcondes (assist: Mohammed Diomande)
64'SilkeborgT. Salquist (assist: T. Adamsen)
90+4'SilkeborgL. Engel (assist: S. Tengstedt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Silkeborg		FC Nordsjaelland
6	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
528	Passes	617
447	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Silkeborg 1.05 · FC Nordsjaelland 1.64. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Silkeborg 6 · FC Nordsjaelland 15; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

Jacob Karlsen, Denmark→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.8%: “FC Nordsjaelland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Silkeborg, 1.64 for FC Nordsjaelland.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (X2 — draw or FC Nordsjaelland win).
These values were computed from 115 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Silkeborg to win22.8%

Draw26.4%

FC Nordsjaelland to win50.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Silkeborg win or draw49.2%

12 — any result other than a draw73.6%

X2 — draw or FC Nordsjaelland win77.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Silkeborg lead at half-time20.9%

Level at half-time43.6%

FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time35.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Silkeborg ahead or level64.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or FC Nordsjaelland ahead79.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 115 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Silkeborg: at least 7Actual: 11
FC Nordsjaelland: at least 8Actual: 12

Corners

Silkeborg: at least 4Actual: 2
FC Nordsjaelland: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Silkeborg score1.05

Attack: Silkeborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score1.64

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–210.6%0–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 115 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 19 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.