Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 19

Randers FC–Lyngby

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 February 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cepheus Park, Randers

Goals and red cards

90'Randers FCF. Bundgaard (assist: J. Ankersen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Randers FC		Lyngby
15	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
394	Passes	333
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Randers FC 1.47 · Lyngby 1.33. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Randers FC 15 · Lyngby 11; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

Jens Maae, Denmark→

3.14

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Randers FC to win”. Second comes “Lyngby to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Randers FC, 1.33 for Lyngby.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 109 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Randers FC to win39.7%

Draw27.3%

Lyngby to win33.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Randers FC win or draw66.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.7%

X2 — draw or Lyngby win60.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Randers FC lead at half-time37.8%

Level at half-time44.4%

Lyngby lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Randers FC ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Lyngby ahead62.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 109 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Randers FC: at least 9Actual: 10
Lyngby: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Randers FC: at least 5Actual: 6
Lyngby: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Randers FC score1.47

Attack: Randers FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lyngby concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyngby score1.33

Attack: Lyngby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Randers FC's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 109 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 18 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.