Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 15

FC Nordsjaelland–AC Horsens

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 October 2022 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Right to Dream Park, Farum

Goals and red cards

4'FC NordsjaellandMohammed Diomande (assist: Ernest Nuamah)
67'FC NordsjaellandAndreas Schjelderup (penalty)
80'AC HorsensJ. Gomez · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Nordsjaelland		AC Horsens
20	Shots	0
8	Shots on target	0
13	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
65%	Possession	35%
617	Passes	327
550	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland 1.48 · AC Horsens 0.93. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FC Nordsjaelland 20 · AC Horsens 0; on target 8 and 0.
FC Nordsjaelland kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Michael Tykgaard, Denmark→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “FC Nordsjaelland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for FC Nordsjaelland, 0.93 for AC Horsens.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (1X — FC Nordsjaelland win or draw).
These values were computed from 84 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Nordsjaelland to win49.7%

Draw28.1%

AC Horsens to win22.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time58.1%

Level at half-time35.4%

AC Horsens lead at half-time6.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Nordsjaelland ahead or level93.5%

12 — not level at half-time64.6%

X2 — level or AC Horsens ahead41.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 84 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 7Actual: 7
AC Horsens: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 5Actual: 10
AC Horsens: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score1.48

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Horsens's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AC Horsens score0.93

Attack: AC Horsens score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–012.6%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.