Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 14

AC Horsens–Silkeborg

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 October 2022 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: CASA Arena, Horsens

Goals and red cards

3'SilkeborgS. Jorgensen (assist: N. Helenius)
15'AC HorsensJ. Gomez (assist: S. Makienok)
48'SilkeborgT. Salquist · red card
49'AC HorsensA. Sigurðarson
73'SilkeborgS. Jorgensen (assist: N. Helenius)
90+2'AC HorsensA. Jacobsen

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Horsens		Silkeborg
12	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
473	Passes	576
396	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AC Horsens 1.05 · Silkeborg 1.35. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots AC Horsens 12 · Silkeborg 10; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

Jonas Hansen, Denmark→

4.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Silkeborg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for AC Horsens, 1.35 for Silkeborg.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (X2 — draw or Silkeborg win).
These values were computed from 81 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AC Horsens to win27.9%

Draw29.3%

Silkeborg to win42.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

AC Horsens lead at half-time19.4%

Level at half-time42.8%

Silkeborg lead at half-time37.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AC Horsens ahead or level62.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Silkeborg ahead80.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 81 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AC Horsens: at least 8Actual: 11
Silkeborg: at least 6Actual: 5

Corners

AC Horsens: at least 4Actual: 2
Silkeborg: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AC Horsens score1.05

Attack: AC Horsens score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Silkeborg score1.35

Attack: Silkeborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AC Horsens's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–111.4%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.