Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 11

FC Midtjylland–Viborg

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 October 2022 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MCH Arena, Herning

Goals and red cards

43'ViborgJ. Grot (assist: I. Said)
44'FC MidtjyllandKristoffer Olsson

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Midtjylland		Viborg
19	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
560	Passes	332
474	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Midtjylland 1.35 · Viborg 1.57. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FC Midtjylland 19 · Viborg 8; on target 7 and 2.
FC Midtjylland kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Jonas Hansen, Denmark→

4.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Viborg to win”. Second comes “FC Midtjylland to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for FC Midtjylland, 1.57 for Viborg.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 61 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Midtjylland to win31.6%

Draw26.5%

Viborg to win41.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Midtjylland win or draw58.1%

12 — any result other than a draw73.5%

X2 — draw or Viborg win68.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

FC Midtjylland lead at half-time38.0%

Level at half-time41.0%

Viborg lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Midtjylland ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Viborg ahead62.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 61 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Midtjylland: at least 9Actual: 15
Viborg: at least 8Actual: 15

Corners

FC Midtjylland: at least 6Actual: 5
Viborg: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,135 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 49.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.35

Attack: FC Midtjylland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viborg's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viborg score1.57

Attack: Viborg score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–29.8%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 61 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 10 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.