Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 2

AC Horsens–Lyngby

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 25 July 2022 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: CASA Arena, Horsens

Goals and red cards

21'AC HorsensA. Jacobsen (assist: C. Tengstedt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AC Horsens		Lyngby
13	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	11
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
39%	Possession	61%
319	Passes	495
218	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots AC Horsens 13 · Lyngby 15; on target 3 and 2.
Lyngby kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Michael Tykgaard, Denmark→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

Only 11 matches of data exist in this league before this date. A rating computed from that little data is nothing but noise.

11	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.