Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 34

SC Braga–Pacos Ferreira

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 May 2023 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'SC BragaÁlvaro Djaló
29'SC BragaR. Horta (assist: Bruma)
51'SC BragaS. Banza (assist: R. Horta)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Pacos Ferreira
20	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	0
17	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	9
3	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
518	Passes	470
457	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 2.63 · Pacos Ferreira 0.41. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots SC Braga 20 · Pacos Ferreira 12; on target 5 and 0.

Referee

Manuel Mota→

4.71

yellows per match

0.47

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.5%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.70 for SC Braga, 0.89 for Pacos Ferreira.
The highest double chance value is 91.5% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 305 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win76.5%

Draw15.1%

Pacos Ferreira to win8.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 774 of 960 predictions were correct (80.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

SC Braga lead at half-time63.5%

Level at half-time32.8%

Pacos Ferreira lead at half-time3.7%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level96.3%

12 — not level at half-time67.2%

X2 — level or Pacos Ferreira ahead36.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 305 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 13Actual: 8
Pacos Ferreira: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

SC Braga: at least 6Actual: 6
Pacos Ferreira: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score2.63

Attack: SC Braga score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Pacos Ferreira concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.63 goals.

How many goals Pacos Ferreira score0.41

Attack: Pacos Ferreira score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.3%2–19.8%3–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.