Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 34

Benfica–Santa Clara

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 May 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'BenficaGonçalo Ramos (assist: A. Bah)
28'BenficaRafa Silva (assist: João Mário)
60'BenficaÁlex Grimaldo (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Benfica		Santa Clara
11	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
662	Passes	324
587	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Benfica 2.81 · Santa Clara 0.21. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Benfica 11 · Santa Clara 9; on target 4 and 5.
Benfica kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Rui Costa→

5.88

yellows per match

0.47

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 91.8%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 6.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.57 for Benfica, 0.54 for Santa Clara.
The highest double chance value is 98.1% (1X — Benfica win or draw).
These values were computed from 302 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Benfica to win91.8%

Draw6.3%

Santa Clara to win1.9%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 103 of 110 predictions were correct (93.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Benfica lead at half-time64.2%

Level at half-time31.6%

Santa Clara lead at half-time4.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Benfica ahead or level95.7%

12 — not level at half-time68.4%

X2 — level or Santa Clara ahead35.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 302 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Benfica: at least 13Actual: 14
Santa Clara: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Benfica: at least 7Actual: 4
Santa Clara: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Benfica score2.81

Attack: Benfica score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.81 goals.

How many goals Santa Clara score0.21

Attack: Santa Clara score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 52% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–013.0%4–011.7%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.