Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 33

Pacos Ferreira–Rio Ave

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 May 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Paços de Ferreira

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Pacos FerreiraN. Thomas (assist: Zé Uilton)
3'Rio AvePatrick William (assist: Costinha)
48'Pacos FerreiraA. Santos (own goal)
85'Pacos FerreiraAlexandre Guedes (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pacos Ferreira		Rio Ave
10	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
3	Offsides	5
37%	Possession	63%
342	Passes	584
281	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pacos Ferreira 1.10 · Rio Ave 1.17. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Pacos Ferreira 10 · Rio Ave 15; on target 5 and 7.
Rio Ave kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Hélder Malheiro→

6.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Pacos Ferreira to win”. Second comes “Rio Ave to win” at 32.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Pacos Ferreira, 1.21 for Rio Ave.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 294 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pacos Ferreira to win39.1%

Draw28.6%

Rio Ave to win32.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Pacos Ferreira lead at half-time25.5%

Level at half-time47.2%

Rio Ave lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Pacos Ferreira ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Rio Ave ahead74.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 294 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pacos Ferreira: at least 15Actual: 16
Rio Ave: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Pacos Ferreira: at least 6Actual: 5
Rio Ave: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pacos Ferreira score1.10

Attack: Pacos Ferreira score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rio Ave score1.17

Attack: Rio Ave score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pacos Ferreira concede 30% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–09.5%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.