Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 31

Pacos Ferreira–Sporting CP

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Paços de Ferreira

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Sporting CPMarafona (own goal)
33'Sporting CPN. Santos (assist: Trincao)
62'Sporting CPTrincao (assist: Pedro Gonçalves)
90+3'Sporting CPChermiti (assist: Arthur Gomes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pacos Ferreira		Sporting CP
7	Shots	19
2	Shots on target	11
3	Shots inside the box	16
8	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	6
1	Offsides	4
36%	Possession	64%
376	Passes	684
305	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pacos Ferreira 0.62 · Sporting CP 1.96. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Pacos Ferreira 7 · Sporting CP 19; on target 2 and 11.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida→

4.53

yellows per match

0.53

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.4%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.70 for Pacos Ferreira, 2.31 for Sporting CP.
The highest double chance value is 91.7% (X2 — draw or Sporting CP win).
These values were computed from 276 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pacos Ferreira to win8.3%

Draw17.3%

Sporting CP to win74.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Pacos Ferreira lead at half-time15.2%

Level at half-time43.7%

Sporting CP lead at half-time41.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Pacos Ferreira ahead or level58.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Sporting CP ahead84.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 276 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pacos Ferreira: at least 13Actual: 12
Sporting CP: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Pacos Ferreira: at least 3
Sporting CP: at least 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pacos Ferreira score0.62

Attack: Pacos Ferreira score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting CP score1.96

Attack: Sporting CP score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Pacos Ferreira concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.96 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–213.7%0–110.7%0–310.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.