Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 30

FC Porto–Boavista

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 April 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'FC PortoM. Taremi (penalty)
66'FC PortoIván Marcano · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		Boavista
10	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	4
2	Offsides	4
61%	Possession	39%
466	Passes	289
390	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 2.27 · Boavista 0.41. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Porto 10 · Boavista 7; on target 1 and 2.
FC Porto kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Rui Costa→

5.81

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.6%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.53 for FC Porto, 0.54 for Boavista.
The highest double chance value is 95.1% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 268 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win81.6%

Draw13.5%

Boavista to win4.9%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	25

2	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 244 of 561 predictions were correct (43.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Porto win or draw95.1%

12 — any result other than a draw86.5%

X2 — draw or Boavista win18.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Porto lead at half-time53.9%

Level at half-time38.8%

Boavista lead at half-time7.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level92.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Boavista ahead46.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 268 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 13Actual: 13
Boavista: at least 13Actual: 25

Corners

FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 6
Boavista: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score2.27

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Boavista concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.27 goals.

How many goals Boavista score0.41

Attack: Boavista score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.5%3–013.1%1–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 268 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 29 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.