Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 29

Pacos Ferreira–FC Porto

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 April 2023 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Paços de Ferreira

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+3'Pacos FerreiraJ. Holsgrove · red card
66'FC PortoM. Taremi (penalty)
83'FC PortoToni Martínez (assist: D. Namaso)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pacos Ferreira		FC Porto
8	Shots	10
0	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
30%	Possession	70%
272	Passes	639
189	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pacos Ferreira 0.56 · FC Porto 1.96. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Pacos Ferreira 8 · FC Porto 10; on target 0 and 4.
FC Porto kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Fábio Veríssimo→

5.76

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.6%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.57 for Pacos Ferreira, 2.43 for FC Porto.
The highest double chance value is 94.3% (X2 — draw or FC Porto win).
These values were computed from 255 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pacos Ferreira to win5.7%

Draw14.8%

FC Porto to win79.6%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 774 of 960 predictions were correct (80.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Pacos Ferreira lead at half-time6.9%

Level at half-time37.8%

FC Porto lead at half-time55.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Pacos Ferreira ahead or level44.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or FC Porto ahead93.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 255 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pacos Ferreira: at least 14Actual: 18
FC Porto: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Pacos Ferreira: at least 4Actual: 2
FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pacos Ferreira score0.56

Attack: Pacos Ferreira score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Porto score1.96

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Pacos Ferreira concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.96 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–215.3%0–312.4%0–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.