Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 28

SC Braga–GIL Vicente

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 April 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'SC BragaR. Horta (assist: Bruma)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		GIL Vicente
19	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
10	Corners	5
4	Offsides	4
47%	Possession	53%
406	Passes	457
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 2.30 · GIL Vicente 0.60. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots SC Braga 19 · GIL Vicente 10; on target 10 and 3.

Referee

Rui Costa→

6.14

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.2%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.42 for SC Braga, 0.79 for GIL Vicente.
The highest double chance value is 91.1% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 249 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win74.2%

Draw16.9%

GIL Vicente to win8.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 913 of 1,223 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SC Braga lead at half-time60.1%

Level at half-time34.9%

GIL Vicente lead at half-time5.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level95.0%

12 — not level at half-time65.1%

X2 — level or GIL Vicente ahead39.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 249 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 12
GIL Vicente: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

SC Braga: at least 5Actual: 10
GIL Vicente: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score2.30

Attack: SC Braga score 63% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GIL Vicente score0.60

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%2–110.3%3–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.