Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 27

GIL Vicente–Chaves

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 10 April 2023 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Chaves
15	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
14	Corners	5
1	Offsides	5
60%	Possession	40%
534	Passes	358
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.49 · Chaves 1.05. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots GIL Vicente 15 · Chaves 16; on target 4 and 5.
GIL Vicente kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Manuel Mota→

4.87

yellows per match

0.53

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for GIL Vicente, 1.12 for Chaves.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (1X — GIL Vicente win or draw).
These values were computed from 242 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win45.8%

Draw27.5%

Chaves to win26.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,527 of 6,231 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — GIL Vicente win or draw73.3%

12 — any result other than a draw72.5%

X2 — draw or Chaves win54.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

GIL Vicente lead at half-time31.4%

Level at half-time45.1%

Chaves lead at half-time23.5%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level76.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Chaves ahead68.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 242 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 14Actual: 13
Chaves: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 7Actual: 14
Chaves: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,319 of 4,971 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.49

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Chaves's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Chaves score1.05

Attack: Chaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–110.1%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 242 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.