Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 27

Pacos Ferreira–Famalicao

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 April 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Paços de Ferreira

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.3% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Pacos FerreiraHernâni Infande (assist: P. Bernardo)
41'FamalicaoJ. Cádiz (assist: I. Rodrigues)
70'FamalicaoIván Jaime (assist: A. Dobre)
87'FamalicaoIván Jaime (assist: Francisco Moura)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pacos Ferreira		Famalicao
13	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	4
0	Offsides	6
49%	Possession	51%
408	Passes	428
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pacos Ferreira 1.18 · Famalicao 1.10. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Pacos Ferreira 13 · Famalicao 9; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Rui Costa→

6.46

yellows per match

0.54

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.3%: “Famalicao to win”. Second comes “Pacos Ferreira to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Pacos Ferreira, 1.15 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 69.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 238 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pacos Ferreira to win34.0%

Draw30.6%

Famalicao to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Pacos Ferreira lead at half-time27.8%

Level at half-time50.3%

Famalicao lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Pacos Ferreira ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time49.7%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead72.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 238 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pacos Ferreira: at least 16Actual: 15
Famalicao: at least 14Actual: 16

Corners

Pacos Ferreira: at least 5Actual: 10
Famalicao: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pacos Ferreira score1.18

Attack: Pacos Ferreira score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score1.10

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pacos Ferreira concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–111.0%1–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.