Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 25

Estoril–Chaves

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 March 2023 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Cascais

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'ChavesS. Vitória (penalty)
68'EstorilJoãozinho · red card
71'ChavesJoão Teixeira (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estoril		Chaves
9	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
389	Passes	380
329	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estoril 1.30 · Chaves 1.12. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Estoril 9 · Chaves 15; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

Rui Costa→

6.64

yellows per match

0.55

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.4%: “Estoril to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Estoril, 1.05 for Chaves.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (1X — Estoril win or draw).
These values were computed from 220 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estoril to win44.4%

Draw28.7%

Chaves to win26.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Estoril lead at half-time28.6%

Level at half-time44.6%

Chaves lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Estoril ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Chaves ahead71.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 220 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estoril: at least 14Actual: 18
Chaves: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Estoril: at least 6Actual: 3
Chaves: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estoril score1.30

Attack: Estoril score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Chaves's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Chaves score1.12

Attack: Chaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estoril concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–011.2%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.