Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 24

Chaves–Portimonense

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 March 2023 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'ChavesJuninho Vieira
73'ChavesIssah Abass (assist: Bernardo Sousa)
88'ChavesRodrigo Nascimento · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Chaves		Portimonense
13	Shots	19
8	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	7
3	Offsides	3
37%	Possession	63%
303	Passes	513
215	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Chaves 1.57 · Portimonense 0.99. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Chaves 13 · Portimonense 19; on target 8 and 2.
Portimonense kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Manuel Mota→

4.77

yellows per match

0.54

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Chaves to win”. Second comes “Portimonense to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Chaves, 1.12 for Portimonense.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Chaves to win40.7%

Draw29.2%

Portimonense to win30.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

5	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Chaves lead at half-time32.2%

Level at half-time48.0%

Portimonense lead at half-time19.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Chaves ahead or level80.2%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Portimonense ahead67.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Chaves: at least 12Actual: 11
Portimonense: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

Chaves: at least 4Actual: 3
Portimonense: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Chaves score1.57

Attack: Chaves score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Portimonense concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Portimonense score0.99

Attack: Portimonense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Chaves's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.6%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.