Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 23

Santa Clara–Vitória SC

1–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 March 2023 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.2% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Vitória SCAlisson Safira (assist: André Silva)
30'Vitória SCAlisson Safira
44'Vitória SCAndré Silva (assist: Rafa)
64'Santa ClaraRildo (assist: Victor Bobsin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Santa Clara		Vitória SC
16	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
543	Passes	381
459	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Santa Clara 0.93 · Vitória SC 1.11. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Santa Clara 16 · Vitória SC 12; on target 5 and 6.
Santa Clara kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Manuel Mota→

4.83

yellows per match

0.58

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.9%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “Santa Clara to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Santa Clara, 1.10 for Vitória SC.
The highest double chance value is 68.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 204 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Santa Clara to win33.8%

Draw31.3%

Vitória SC to win34.9%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 2,631 of 8,435 predictions were correct (31.2%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Santa Clara lead at half-time17.1%

Level at half-time49.0%

Vitória SC lead at half-time33.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Santa Clara ahead or level66.1%

12 — not level at half-time51.0%

X2 — level or Vitória SC ahead82.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 204 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Santa Clara: at least 15Actual: 16
Vitória SC: at least 14Actual: 9

Corners

Santa Clara: at least 4Actual: 7
Vitória SC: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Santa Clara score0.93

Attack: Santa Clara score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitória SC score1.11

Attack: Vitória SC score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–111.6%1–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.