Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 22

Sporting CP–Estoril

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 27 February 2023 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'Sporting CPHéctor Bellerín
51'Sporting CPTrincao (assist: N. Santos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Estoril
17	Shots	3
8	Shots on target	0
13	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
14	Corners	5
1	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
539	Passes	345
470	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 2.49 · Estoril 0.44. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Sporting CP 17 · Estoril 3; on target 8 and 0.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Manuel Mota→

5.27

yellows per match

0.64

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.2%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.59 for Sporting CP, 0.60 for Estoril.
The highest double chance value is 94.7% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 196 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win81.2%

Draw13.5%

Estoril to win5.3%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sporting CP lead at half-time71.0%

Level at half-time28.4%

Estoril lead at half-time0.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level99.4%

12 — not level at half-time71.6%

X2 — level or Estoril ahead29.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 196 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 15Actual: 9
Estoril: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 6Actual: 14
Estoril: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score2.49

Attack: Sporting CP score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Estoril concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.49 goals.

How many goals Estoril score0.44

Attack: Estoril score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.3%3–012.5%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.