Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 33

Sivasspor–Antalyaspor

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BG Grup 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivas

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'SivassporU. Radakovic (assist: Efkan Bekiroğlu)
75'SivassporR. Manaj

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sivasspor		Antalyaspor
12	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
350	Passes	459
281	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sivasspor 1.64 · Antalyaspor 1.16. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Sivasspor 12 · Antalyaspor 9; on target 4 and 2.
Antalyaspor kept the ball more (56%).

Unavailable players

Sivasspor

A. Okumusout · injury
D. Nikolicout · injury
J. Bieganskiout · injury
M. Albayrakout · Knee Injury

Antalyaspor

A. Townsendout · not in squad
E. Rakipout · yellow-card suspension
E. Uzunout · Knee Injury
E. Yeşilyurtout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

B. Pakkan→

5.62

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Sivasspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Sivasspor, 1.13 for Antalyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (1X — Sivasspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 982 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sivasspor to win48.2%

Draw26.6%

Antalyaspor to win25.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sivasspor lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time40.4%

Antalyaspor lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sivasspor ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Antalyaspor ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 981 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sivasspor: at least 11Actual: 13
Antalyaspor: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Sivasspor: at least 4Actual: 6
Antalyaspor: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sivasspor score1.64

Attack: Sivasspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antalyaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antalyaspor score1.16

Attack: Antalyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.4%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.