Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 34

Gent–Oostende

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 April 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ghelamco Arena, Gent

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 5%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'OostendeF. Hornby (assist: Sieben Dewaele)
77'GentH. Cuypers (assist: S. Kums)
88'OostendeN. Batzner (assist: K. Arase)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gent		Oostende
19	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
520	Passes	376
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gent 2.73 · Oostende 0.65. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Gent 19 · Oostende 13; on target 4 and 6.
Gent kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

L. Visser→

4.43

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.8%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.92 for Gent, 0.68 for Oostende.
The highest double chance value is 95.2% (1X — Gent win or draw).
These values were computed from 297 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gent to win83.8%

Draw11.4%

Oostende to win4.8%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 501 of 593 predictions were correct (84.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

4	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,232 of 4,768 predictions were correct (46.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gent win or draw95.2%

12 — any result other than a draw88.6%

X2 — draw or Oostende win16.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (11.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gent lead at half-time66.3%

Level at half-time29.2%

Oostende lead at half-time4.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Gent ahead or level95.5%

12 — not level at half-time70.8%

X2 — level or Oostende ahead33.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 297 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gent: at least 9Actual: 4
Oostende: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Gent: at least 6Actual: 3
Oostende: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals71.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 488 of 666 predictions were correct (73.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gent score2.73

Attack: Gent score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Oostende concede 41% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oostende score0.65

Attack: Oostende score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.9%3–011.9%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 297 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.