Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 33

Union St. Gilloise–Seraing United

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 April 2023 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Union St. GilloiseS. Adingra
34'Union St. GilloiseY. Vertessen
47'Seraing UnitedMarius (assist: M. Cachbach)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		Seraing United
19	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
562	Passes	352
480	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 2.67 · Seraing United 0.42. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 19 · Seraing United 6; on target 8 and 2.
Union St. Gilloise kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

K. Van Damme→

4.28

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.3%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.87 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.62 for Seraing United.
The highest double chance value is 95.6% (1X — Union St. Gilloise win or draw).
These values were computed from 294 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win84.3%

Draw11.4%

Seraing United to win4.4%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 501 of 593 predictions were correct (84.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time59.5%

Level at half-time32.5%

Seraing United lead at half-time8.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Union St. Gilloise ahead or level92.0%

12 — not level at half-time67.5%

X2 — level or Seraing United ahead40.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 294 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union St. Gilloise: at least 11Actual: 9
Seraing United: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Union St. Gilloise: at least 7Actual: 11
Seraing United: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score2.67

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Seraing United concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Seraing United score0.42

Attack: Seraing United score below the league average (51% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.9%3–012.6%4–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.