Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 32

St. Truiden–Oostende

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 April 2023 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stayen, Saint Redon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'St. TruidenJorge Teixeira (assist: Gianni Bruno)
43'St. TruidenGianni Bruno (penalty)
62'St. TruidenR. Reitz (assist: T. Hara)
78'St. TruidenGianni Bruno (assist: D. Hashioka)
88'St. TruidenO. Dumont (assist: S. Okazaki)

Match statistics

Match statistics
St. Truiden		Oostende
18	Shots	11
11	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	4
53%	Possession	47%
457	Passes	411
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: St. Truiden 1.50 · Oostende 1.13. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots St. Truiden 18 · Oostende 11; on target 11 and 3.

Referee

W. De Cremer→

3.76

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “Oostende to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for St. Truiden, 1.23 for Oostende.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 285 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

St. Truiden to win40.4%

Draw28.1%

Oostende to win31.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

St. Truiden lead at half-time43.7%

Level at half-time41.7%

Oostende lead at half-time14.6%

First-half double chance

1X — St. Truiden ahead or level85.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Oostende ahead56.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 285 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

St. Truiden: at least 11Actual: 14
Oostende: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

St. Truiden: at least 4Actual: 6
Oostende: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals St. Truiden score1.50

Attack: St. Truiden score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Oostende concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oostende score1.13

Attack: Oostende score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.5%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.