Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 32

Club Brugge KV–Seraing United

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 April 2023 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'Club Brugge KVFerran Jutglà (assist: Noa Lang)
90'Club Brugge KVA. Nusa (assist: Andreas Skov Olsen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Seraing United
26	Shots	5
11	Shots on target	0
18	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	9
21	Corners	1
3	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
632	Passes	295
559	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 2.44 · Seraing United 0.58. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Club Brugge KV 26 · Seraing United 5; on target 11 and 0.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

W. Smet→

3.57

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 88.4%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 8.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.17 for Club Brugge KV, 0.56 for Seraing United.
The highest double chance value is 97.1% (1X — Club Brugge KV win or draw).
These values were computed from 277 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win88.4%

Draw8.7%

Seraing United to win2.9%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 269 of 310 predictions were correct (86.8%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Club Brugge KV lead at half-time64.4%

Level at half-time29.8%

Seraing United lead at half-time5.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV ahead or level94.2%

12 — not level at half-time70.2%

X2 — level or Seraing United ahead35.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 277 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Club Brugge KV: at least 10Actual: 10
Seraing United: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Club Brugge KV: at least 7Actual: 21
Seraing United: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score2.44

Attack: Club Brugge KV score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Seraing United concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Seraing United score0.58

Attack: Seraing United score below the league average (49% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–013.4%2–012.3%4–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.