Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 31

Seraing United–Gent

0–5

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 April 2023 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade du Pairay, Seraing

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'GentGift Orban (assist: Vadis Odjidja-Ofoe)
52'GentGift Orban
54'GentH. Cuypers (assist: Gift Orban)
62'GentJ. Torunarigha (assist: J. Okumu)
77'GentH. Cuypers (assist: Vadis Odjidja-Ofoe)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Seraing United		Gent
6	Shots	18
0	Shots on target	10
2	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	13
1	Offsides	2
36%	Possession	64%
319	Passes	571
215	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Seraing United 0.70 · Gent 2.09. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Seraing United 6 · Gent 18; on target 0 and 10.
Gent kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Boucaut→

3.13

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.0%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.69 for Seraing United, 2.22 for Gent.
The highest double chance value is 91.2% (X2 — draw or Gent win).
These values were computed from 270 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Seraing United to win8.8%

Draw18.2%

Gent to win73.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Seraing United lead at half-time12.0%

Level at half-time36.4%

Gent lead at half-time51.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Seraing United ahead or level48.5%

12 — not level at half-time63.6%

X2 — level or Gent ahead88.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 270 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Seraing United: at least 11Actual: 5
Gent: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Seraing United: at least 3Actual: 3
Gent: at least 5Actual: 13

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Seraing United score0.70

Attack: Seraing United score below the league average (47% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gent concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gent score2.09

Attack: Gent score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Seraing United concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.9%0–111.4%1–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.