Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 30

St. Truiden–Seraing United

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 March 2023 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stayen, Saint Redon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'St. TruidenGianni Bruno
83'St. TruidenGianni Bruno (assist: D. Hayashi)
88'Seraing UnitedMarius (assist: D. Bunchukov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
St. Truiden		Seraing United
12	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	4
49%	Possession	51%
433	Passes	454
333	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: St. Truiden 1.58 · Seraing United 0.76. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots St. Truiden 12 · Seraing United 9; on target 7 and 1.

Referee

W. De Cremer→

3.75

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.1%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for St. Truiden, 0.68 for Seraing United.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (1X — St. Truiden win or draw).
These values were computed from 261 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

St. Truiden to win62.1%

Draw24.6%

Seraing United to win13.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

St. Truiden lead at half-time44.0%

Level at half-time40.7%

Seraing United lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — St. Truiden ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Seraing United ahead56.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 261 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

St. Truiden: at least 11Actual: 14
Seraing United: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

St. Truiden: at least 5Actual: 4
Seraing United: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals St. Truiden score1.58

Attack: St. Truiden score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Seraing United concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Seraing United score0.76

Attack: Seraing United score below the league average (47% fewer).

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.3%2–013.8%1–112.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.