Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 29

Seraing United–Antwerp

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 March 2023 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade du Pairay, Seraing

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Seraing UnitedDaniel Opare · red card
15'AntwerpJürgen Ekkelenkamp
19'AntwerpV. Janssen (assist: A. Muja)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Seraing United		Antwerp
8	Shots	18
1	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
40%	Possession	60%
367	Passes	578
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Seraing United 0.69 · Antwerp 1.94. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Seraing United 8 · Antwerp 18; on target 1 and 5.
Antwerp kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

N. Laforge→

4.89

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.4%: “Antwerp to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.70 for Seraing United, 2.00 for Antwerp.
The highest double chance value is 89.3% (X2 — draw or Antwerp win).
These values were computed from 254 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Seraing United to win10.7%

Draw20.9%

Antwerp to win68.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Seraing United lead at half-time13.5%

Level at half-time35.2%

Antwerp lead at half-time51.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Seraing United ahead or level48.7%

12 — not level at half-time64.8%

X2 — level or Antwerp ahead86.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 254 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Seraing United: at least 11Actual: 15
Antwerp: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Seraing United: at least 3Actual: 4
Antwerp: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Seraing United score0.69

Attack: Seraing United score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Antwerp concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antwerp score1.94

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Seraing United concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.9%0–112.8%1–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.