Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 29

AS Eupen–Oostende

4–4

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 March 2023 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg, Eupen

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.3% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'OostendeT. Ambrose (penalty)
39'OostendeAnton Tanghe · red card
45+3'AS EupenD. Gassama (assist: N'Dri Konan)
56'OostendeThéo Ndicka Matam
59'AS EupenSmail Prevljak (assist: D. Gassama)
61'OostendeF. Hornby

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Eupen		Oostende
29	Shots	14
10	Shots on target	9
20	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
67%	Possession	33%
518	Passes	250
406	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Eupen 1.60 · Oostende 1.39. On the pitch: 4-4.
Shots AS Eupen 29 · Oostende 14; on target 10 and 9.
AS Eupen kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

L. D'hondt→

4.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.1%: “AS Eupen to win”. Second comes “Oostende to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for AS Eupen, 1.41 for Oostende.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 252 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Eupen to win37.1%

Draw27.1%

Oostende to win35.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

(assist: T. Sakamoto)

76'AS EupenB. Lambert (assist: G. Magnée)

84'AS EupenR. Charles-Cook (assist: Y. Van Genechten)

90+7'OostendeMatej Rodin (assist: G. Hubert)

9	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,347 of 3,894 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AS Eupen win or draw64.2%

12 — any result other than a draw72.9%

X2 — draw or Oostende win62.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

AS Eupen lead at half-time43.2%

Level at half-time38.0%

Oostende lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Eupen ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Oostende ahead56.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 252 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Eupen: at least 11Actual: 9
Oostende: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

AS Eupen: at least 4Actual: 9
Oostende: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Eupen score1.60

Attack: AS Eupen score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Oostende concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oostende score1.39

Attack: Oostende score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AS Eupen concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–19.2%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 252 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 28 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.