Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 28

Cercle Brugge–Seraing United

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 March 2023 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Seraing UnitedMarius (assist: Sambou Sissoko)
31'Cercle BruggeH. Siquet
32'Cercle BruggeA. Ueda (assist: A. Francis)
55'Cercle BruggeA. Ueda (assist: K. Denkey)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		Seraing United
19	Shots	3
7	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
11	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
402	Passes	321
279	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 2.13 · Seraing United 0.70. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Cercle Brugge 19 · Seraing United 3; on target 7 and 2.
Cercle Brugge kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

W. Smet→

3.75

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.5%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.19 for Cercle Brugge, 0.65 for Seraing United.
The highest double chance value is 91.7% (1X — Cercle Brugge win or draw).
These values were computed from 243 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win73.5%

Draw18.1%

Seraing United to win8.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time49.5%

Level at half-time37.5%

Seraing United lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Seraing United ahead50.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 243 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 12Actual: 14
Seraing United: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 6Actual: 11
Seraing United: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score2.13

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Seraing United concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Seraing United score0.70

Attack: Seraing United score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.5%1–012.1%3–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.