Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 27

Seraing United–KV Mechelen

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 February 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade du Pairay, Seraing

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'KV MechelenG. Hairemans
55'KV MechelenAlessio Da Cruz

Match statistics

Match statistics
Seraing United		KV Mechelen
7	Shots	9
0	Shots on target	4
2	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
474	Passes	414
362	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Seraing United 1.15 · KV Mechelen 1.66. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Seraing United 7 · KV Mechelen 9; on target 0 and 4.

Referee

L. D'hondt→

4.38

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “KV Mechelen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Seraing United, 1.56 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (X2 — draw or KV Mechelen win).
These values were computed from 233 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Seraing United to win24.5%

Draw27.2%

KV Mechelen to win48.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Seraing United lead at half-time20.4%

Level at half-time39.2%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time40.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Seraing United ahead or level59.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead79.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 233 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Seraing United: at least 10Actual: 11
KV Mechelen: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Seraing United: at least 4Actual: 4
KV Mechelen: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Seraing United score1.15

Attack: Seraing United score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.66

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Seraing United concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%0–110.5%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.