Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 25

OH Leuven–Cercle Brugge

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 10 February 2023 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Den Dreef Stadium, Heverley

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.7% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		Cercle Brugge
8	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	7
1	Offsides	4
56%	Possession	44%
405	Passes	318
259	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 1.64 · Cercle Brugge 1.30. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots OH Leuven 8 · Cercle Brugge 12; on target 1 and 5.
OH Leuven kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Boucaut→

3.25

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.8%: “OH Leuven to win”. Second comes “Cercle Brugge to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for OH Leuven, 1.37 for Cercle Brugge.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 214 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win38.8%

Draw27.0%

Cercle Brugge to win34.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

OH Leuven lead at half-time29.2%

Level at half-time42.3%

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Cercle Brugge ahead70.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 214 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 10Actual: 12
Cercle Brugge: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 5Actual: 5
Cercle Brugge: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score1.64

Attack: OH Leuven score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.30

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.5%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.