Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 23

Kortrijk–Oostende

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 January 2023 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'KortrijkF. Selemani (assist: M. Bruno)
45+5'OostendeN. Batzner (assist: F. Hornby)
84'OostendeT. Ambrose (assist: N. Batzner)
89'KortrijkP. Gueye (assist: F. Avenatti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kortrijk		Oostende
14	Shots	22
3	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	16
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
5	Offsides	5
58%	Possession	42%
428	Passes	307
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kortrijk 1.76 · Oostende 1.54. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Kortrijk 14 · Oostende 22; on target 3 and 7.
Kortrijk kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Boucaut→

3.45

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “Kortrijk to win”. Second comes “Oostende to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Kortrijk, 1.34 for Oostende.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 197 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kortrijk to win44.0%

Draw26.0%

Oostende to win30.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Kortrijk lead at half-time41.7%

Level at half-time39.8%

Oostende lead at half-time18.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Kortrijk ahead or level81.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Oostende ahead58.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 197 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kortrijk: at least 10Actual: 12
Oostende: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Kortrijk: at least 5Actual: 2
Oostende: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kortrijk score1.76

Attack: Kortrijk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oostende concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oostende score1.54

Attack: Oostende score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kortrijk concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.1%1–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.