Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 19

AS Eupen–Charleroi

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 January 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg, Eupen

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.6% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'AS EupenB. Lambert (assist: Stef Peeters)
55'CharleroiK. Nkuba (assist: M. Ilaimaharitra)
88'CharleroiDamien Marcq (assist: R. Morioka)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Eupen		Charleroi
10	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	14
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
364	Passes	504
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Eupen 1.67 · Charleroi 1.57. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots AS Eupen 10 · Charleroi 20; on target 3 and 4.
Charleroi kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Boucaut→

3.56

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “AS Eupen to win”. Second comes “Charleroi to win” at 35.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for AS Eupen, 1.39 for Charleroi.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 161 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Eupen to win37.2%

Draw27.3%

Charleroi to win35.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AS Eupen lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time38.5%

Charleroi lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — AS Eupen ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Charleroi ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 161 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AS Eupen: at least 9Actual: 11
Charleroi: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

AS Eupen: at least 5Actual: 5
Charleroi: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Eupen score1.67

Attack: AS Eupen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charleroi score1.57

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AS Eupen concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.2%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.