Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 33

Heart Of Midlothian–Ross County

6–1

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 April 2023 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Heart Of MidlothianA. Cochrane (assist: J. Ginnelly)
22'Heart Of MidlothianJ. Ginnelly (assist: C. Devlin)
28'Heart Of MidlothianL. Shankland (assist: A. Cochrane)
45+7'Heart Of MidlothianL. Shankland (penalty)
57'Heart Of MidlothianJ. Ginnelly (assist: A. Cochrane)
59'Heart Of Midlothian

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Ross County
30	Shots	7
12	Shots on target	1
20	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
485	Passes	272
357	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 1.86 · Ross County 0.97. On the pitch: 6-1.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 30 · Ross County 7; on target 12 and 1.
Heart Of Midlothian kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Don Robertson, Scotland→

3.71

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.03 for Ross County.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (1X — Heart Of Midlothian win or draw).
These values were computed from 192 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win56.0%

Draw24.4%

Ross County to win19.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,696 of 2,854 predictions were correct (59.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–0

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time48.2%

Level at half-time39.4%

Ross County lead at half-time12.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Heart Of Midlothian ahead or level87.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Ross County ahead51.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 192 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 9Actual: 7
Ross County: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 5Actual: 8
Ross County: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.86

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ross County's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ross County score0.97

Attack: Ross County score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.9%2–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.