Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 30

Ross County–Celtic

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 April 2023 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Global Energy Stadium, Dingwall

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+5'CelticJota (penalty)
90+5'CelticA. Bernabei (assist: Jota)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ross County		Celtic
8	Shots	28
2	Shots on target	9
4	Shots inside the box	20
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	9
1	Offsides	3
26%	Possession	74%
210	Passes	626
116	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ross County 0.62 · Celtic 2.40. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Ross County 8 · Celtic 28; on target 2 and 9.
Celtic kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

William Collum, Scotland→

3.82

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.6%: “Celtic to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.66 for Ross County, 2.89 for Celtic.
The highest double chance value is 95.2% (X2 — draw or Celtic win).
These values were computed from 179 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ross County to win4.8%

Draw11.6%

Celtic to win83.6%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 491 of 585 predictions were correct (83.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Ross County lead at half-time16.9%

Level at half-time41.9%

Celtic lead at half-time41.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ross County ahead or level58.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Celtic ahead83.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 179 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ross County: at least 10Actual: 7
Celtic: at least 8Actual: 6

Corners

Ross County: at least 3Actual: 2
Celtic: at least 6Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ross County score0.62

Attack: Ross County score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celtic score2.40

Attack: Celtic score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ross County's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.2%0–312.0%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.