UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Gent–IFK Goteborg

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'GentM. Volckaert (assist: T. Araujo)
85'IFK GoteborgS. Alioum (assist: F. Ottosson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gent		IFK Goteborg
0	Shots	0
4	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gent 2.29 · IFK Goteborg 0.99. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Gent 0 · IFK Goteborg 0; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

G. Correia→

5.67

yellows per match

0.58

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.0%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.29 for Gent, 0.99 for IFK Goteborg.
The highest double chance value is 84.9% (1X — Gent win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,222 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gent to win67.0%

Draw18.0%

IFK Goteborg to win15.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gent score2.29

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IFK Goteborg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals IFK Goteborg score0.99

Attack: IFK Goteborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–09.9%2–19.8%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.