UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Austria Vienna–Beitar Jerusalem

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Beitar JerusalemO. Atzili (assist: N. Antwi)
56'Beitar JerusalemJ. Kalu
58'Austria ViennaKelvin Boateng

Match statistics

Match statistics
Austria Vienna		Beitar Jerusalem
8	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	9
4	Shots inside the box	10
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
34%	Possession	66%
380	Passes	766
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Austria Vienna 1.17 · Beitar Jerusalem 1.72. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Austria Vienna 8 · Beitar Jerusalem 20; on target 4 and 9.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

L. Kuzma→

3.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “Austria Vienna to win” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Austria Vienna, 1.72 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,507 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Austria Vienna to win26.3%

Draw23.1%

Beitar Jerusalem to win50.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	22

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Austria Vienna score1.17

Attack: Austria Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.72

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Austria Vienna's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%0–19.9%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.