UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Dinamo Minsk–SC Braga

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 13%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dinamo Minsk		SC Braga
0	Shots	0
2	Shots on target	5
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dinamo Minsk 0.66 · SC Braga 2.70. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Dinamo Minsk 0 · SC Braga 0; on target 2 and 5.
Dinamo Minsk kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

K. Szabolcs→

3.94

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.5%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.66 for Dinamo Minsk, 2.70 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 93.1% (X2 — draw or SC Braga win).
These values were computed from 2,292 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dinamo Minsk to win6.9%

Draw12.7%

SC Braga to win80.5%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 501 of 593 predictions were correct (84.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dinamo Minsk score0.66

Attack: Dinamo Minsk score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score2.70

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Dinamo Minsk concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.6%0–311.4%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.