UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Hammarby FF–Raków Częstochowa

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hammarby FF		Raków Częstochowa
0	Shots	0
4	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
10	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hammarby FF 1.37 · Raków Częstochowa 1.38. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hammarby FF 0 · Raków Częstochowa 0; on target 4 and 3.
Hammarby FF kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

L. Pairetto→

4.55

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Raków Częstochowa to win”. Second comes “Hammarby FF to win” at 37.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Hammarby FF, 1.38 for Raków Częstochowa.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,335 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hammarby FF to win37.2%

Draw24.8%

Raków Częstochowa to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,563 of 4,188 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hammarby FF score1.37

Attack: Hammarby FF score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score1.38

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hammarby FF concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%0–19.2%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.