UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Tromso–CFR 1907 Cluj

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'TromsoL. Hien (assist: L. O. Larsen)
48'TromsoI. Vadebu (assist: T. Nyhammer)
78'CFR 1907 ClujM. Korenica (assist: A. Sfait)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tromso		CFR 1907 Cluj
0	Shots	0
6	Shots on target	1
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
9	Corners	0
2	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tromso 1.38 · CFR 1907 Cluj 1.30. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Tromso 0 · CFR 1907 Cluj 0; on target 6 and 1.
Tromso kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

D. Dickinson→

4.43

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Tromso to win”. Second comes “CFR 1907 Cluj to win” at 35.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Tromso, 1.30 for CFR 1907 Cluj.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,199 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tromso to win39.5%

Draw25.2%

CFR 1907 Cluj to win35.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tromso score1.38

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CFR 1907 Cluj's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals CFR 1907 Cluj score1.30

Attack: CFR 1907 Cluj score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%1–09.9%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.