UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

GKS Katowice–Hapoel Tel Aviv

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 12 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Hapoel Tel AvivS. Turiel (assist: R. Alkoukin)
83'GKS KatowiceChico (own goal)
90'GKS KatowiceA. Jedrych (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GKS Katowice		Hapoel Tel Aviv
0	Shots	0
7	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GKS Katowice 1.36 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 0.93. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots GKS Katowice 0 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 0; on target 7 and 3.
GKS Katowice kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

A. Tsakalidis→

5.18

yellows per match

0.03

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “GKS Katowice to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for GKS Katowice, 0.93 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (1X — GKS Katowice win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,095 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GKS Katowice to win47.1%

Draw26.8%

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win26.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GKS Katowice score1.36

Attack: GKS Katowice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score0.93

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GKS Katowice's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.1%1–112.4%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.