UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

FC Copenhagen–Debreceni VSC

5–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 12 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'FC CopenhagenM. Elyounoussi (assist: Robert)
47'Debreceni VSCB. Dzsudzsak
58'FC CopenhagenM. Elyounoussi (penalty)
76'FC CopenhagenA. Kral (assist: A. Cornelius)
78'FC CopenhagenA. Cornelius (assist: A. Kral)
90'FC CopenhagenA. Cornelius (assist: M. Nasnas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Copenhagen		Debreceni VSC
22	Shots	10
11	Shots on target	2
20	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	3
6	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
470	Passes	345
392	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Copenhagen 2.36 · Debreceni VSC 0.92. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots FC Copenhagen 22 · Debreceni VSC 10; on target 11 and 2.
FC Copenhagen kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

J. Pignard→

4.35

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.6%: “FC Copenhagen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for FC Copenhagen, 0.92 for Debreceni VSC.
The highest double chance value is 86.7% (1X — FC Copenhagen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,473 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Copenhagen to win69.6%

Draw17.1%

Debreceni VSC to win13.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Copenhagen score2.36

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Debreceni VSC's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Debreceni VSC score0.92

Attack: Debreceni VSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.5%2–19.6%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.