UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

CSKA 1948–Panathinaikos

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 11 August 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.7% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'PanathinaikosL. Garcia
87'CSKA 1948Lasha Dvali
94'PanathinaikosC. Dessers

Match statistics

Match statistics
CSKA 1948		Panathinaikos
14	Shots	21
5	Shots on target	11
9	Shots inside the box	12
9	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
638	Passes	661
553	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.27 · Panathinaikos 1.28. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots CSKA 1948 14 · Panathinaikos 21; on target 5 and 11.

Referee

J. Vergoote→

3.72

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

101

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Panathinaikos to win”. Second comes “CSKA 1948 to win” at 36.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for CSKA 1948, 1.28 for Panathinaikos.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,853 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win36.7%

Draw25.9%

Panathinaikos to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.27

Attack: CSKA 1948 score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.28

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948 concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%0–110.4%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.