UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Apollon Limassol–Brann

2–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 11 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'BrannK. M. Ingason (assist: E. Gudmundsson)
86'Apollon LimassolI. Ljubic (assist: Morgan Brown)
90'BrannN. Holm (assist: V. Dragsnes)
92'Apollon LimassolGaetan Weissbeck
95'BrannN. Holm (assist: K. Eriksen)
105'BrannK. Eriksen (assist: V. Dragsnes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Apollon Limassol		Brann
0	Shots	0
9	Shots on target	6
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
9	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
25%	Possession	75%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apollon Limassol 1.39 · Brann 1.58. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Apollon Limassol 0 · Brann 0; on target 9 and 6.
Brann kept the ball more (75%).

Referee

R. Harvey→

5.75

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “Brann to win”. Second comes “Apollon Limassol to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Apollon Limassol, 1.58 for Brann.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,935 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apollon Limassol to win33.9%

Draw23.6%

Brann to win42.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,519 of 5,657 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

118'BrannK. M. Ingason · red card

13	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,773 of 6,688 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Apollon Limassol win or draw57.5%

12 — any result other than a draw76.4%

X2 — draw or Brann win66.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.6%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apollon Limassol score1.39

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brann's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brann score1.58

Attack: Brann score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–28.9%0–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1935 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 106 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.