UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Hapoel Tel Aviv–GKS Katowice

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Hapoel Tel AvivS. Turiel (assist: O. Altman)
18'Hapoel Tel AvivR. Alkoukin

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Tel Aviv		GKS Katowice
0	Shots	0
6	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
0%	Possession	0%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.16 · GKS Katowice 1.10. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Hapoel Tel Aviv 0 · GKS Katowice 0; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

B. Dechepy→

3.83

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “GKS Katowice to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 1.10 for GKS Katowice.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,088 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win37.7%

Draw27.8%

GKS Katowice to win34.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.16

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GKS Katowice's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GKS Katowice score1.10

Attack: GKS Katowice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–012.5%0–111.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.