UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Beitar Jerusalem–Austria Vienna

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 August 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Beitar JerusalemN. Muche
45'Austria ViennaV. Markovic
69'Austria ViennaS. Saljic (assist: D. Nnodim)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beitar Jerusalem		Austria Vienna
14	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	1
3	Offsides	3
69%	Possession	31%
680	Passes	299
582	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beitar Jerusalem 1.91 · Austria Vienna 1.06. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Beitar Jerusalem 14 · Austria Vienna 9; on target 5 and 5.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

L. Visser→

4.45

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

101

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.7%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Beitar Jerusalem, 1.06 for Austria Vienna.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — Beitar Jerusalem win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,501 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beitar Jerusalem to win57.7%

Draw21.4%

Austria Vienna to win20.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.91

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Austria Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Austria Vienna score1.06

Attack: Austria Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–010.1%1–110.1%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.