UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

CFR 1907 Cluj–Tromso

0–5

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 August 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'TromsoH. Larsen (assist: L. O. Larsen)
20'TromsoH. Larsen (assist: R. Jenssen)
27'TromsoI. Dahlqvist (assist: David Edvardsson)
61'TromsoI. Dahlqvist
73'TromsoI. Dahlqvist (assist: Ieltsin Camoes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
CFR 1907 Cluj		Tromso
0	Shots	0
1	Shots on target	9
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	0
1	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CFR 1907 Cluj 1.84 · Tromso 0.98. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots CFR 1907 Cluj 0 · Tromso 0; on target 1 and 9.

Referee

P. Kolaric→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.0%: “CFR 1907 Cluj to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for CFR 1907 Cluj, 0.98 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (1X — CFR 1907 Cluj win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,185 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CFR 1907 Cluj to win58.0%

Draw22.0%

Tromso to win20.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CFR 1907 Cluj score1.84

Attack: CFR 1907 Cluj score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tromso score0.98

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CFR 1907 Cluj's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–011.3%1–110.4%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.