UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Panathinaikos–CSKA 1948

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 5 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'PanathinaikosA. Jagusic (assist: S. Andino)
31'CSKA 1948G. Rusev (assist: H. Cuellar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panathinaikos		CSKA 1948
14	Shots	19
5	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	11
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
637	Passes	279
567	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panathinaikos 1.60 · CSKA 1948 0.99. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Panathinaikos 14 · CSKA 1948 19; on target 5 and 2.
Panathinaikos kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

M. Marchetti→

4.05

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “Panathinaikos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Panathinaikos, 0.99 for CSKA 1948.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (1X — Panathinaikos win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,846 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panathinaikos to win51.9%

Draw24.3%

CSKA 1948 to win23.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.60

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948 concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals CSKA 1948 score0.99

Attack: CSKA 1948 score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.3%1–111.5%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.